One Final Act

And then there were two...After one of the most exciting playoffs in league history, highlighted by both the Celtics-Bulls series and both Conference Finals, there are only two teams left; the Orlando Magic and the Los Angeles Lakers. While the great folks at Garbage Time expected a slightly different match-up (although I did give Orlando a chance and said if Alston holds his own against Mo Williams, Orlando will win, which happened--had to pat myself on the back a little there) I am not surprised Orlando beat Cleveland for a few reasons. Orlando is a match-up nightmare with Turkoglu and Lewis at the three and four. Orlando has a front line of guys who are 6-10, 6-10, and 6-11 in Turkoglu, Lewis, and Howard this coupled with Lewis and Turkoglu's ability to handle the ball and shoot doesn't allow for anyone to match-up with them. Also, Dwight Howard controls the game on the boards and mans the paint for Orlando. Lastly, Orlando is a great shooting team, all of their perimeter players have the ability to knock down open jump shots, this makes teams pay for doubling Dwight Howard in the low post.

Still, the Lakers may be the only team in the NBA who can match up with Orlando. First, Ariza can guard Turkoglu, despite giving up one to two inches. Turkoglu doesn't post up and isn't a great ball handler, due to this Ariza who boasts long arms and great athletic ability will give Turkoglu problems. Ariza's defense should cancel out Turkoglu's offensive output and force Rafer Alston to be Orlando's main playmaker. Also, Lamar Odom matches up extremely well with Rashard Lewis. Both have similar strengths, but one thing seems to be getting overlooked in this match-up. Rashard Lewis will have to defend Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol in the post whenever he's in the game. For the majority of these playoffs, Lewis has not had to guard a true low post presence who really bangs the way Odom and Gasol do. This constant banging should wear Lewis down and could inhibit his offensive output. The last key match-up is between Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum. Dwight Howard has the upper hand here, but Los Angeles should be reluctant to double Howard in fear of leaving the Magic shooters open. Also, Dwight Howard lacks a true low post move, sure he has the running hook, but against an agile, athletic 7 footer like Bynum, that shot can be blocked rather easily. If the Lakers do decide to double Howard, they can with another 7 footer in Pau Gasol, or with the 6-10 Lamar Odom. Lastly, Dwight Howard has the tendency to bring the ball low which allows for guards to strip him in the post.

There has been talk of Jameer Nelson returning for the Finals, but I doubt that he can make a real impact from a performance stand point. After sitting for almost four months with injury, he won't be in playing shape, his return could disrupt Orlando's current rotation, and how will his shoulder react to being hit on screens, and on drives to the basket?